What can we expect in China in the year of the dragon?

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Tansport crates with Chinese flag on the conveyor belt. Global exportation concept.

CR:  Michael ChangSheng HongJoe NgaiAlex SawayaJeongmin Seong, Jin Wang, Daniel Zipser, and  Glenn Leibowitz

McKinsey&Company

From innovations in biopharmaceuticals to the globalization of consumer brands, these five trends will shape business in China in the year ahead.

As 2024 gains momentum, it is significant to note that the Year of the Dragon mark this year according to the Chinese zodiac. The dragon, symbolizing strength, and good fortune, frames the backdrop for China’s journey forward after a challenging 2023. The previous year saw China navigating the aftermath of the pandemic, with its economy starting to recover from stringent lockdowns and travel restrictions.

Despite substantial challenges in the real estate sector and flagging consumer confidence, the economy registered a number of notable gains. China not only surpassed its GDP targets with 5.2 percent year-on-year growth, but it also played a key role in the expansion of the global economy, contributing approximately one-third of total global GDP growth.

The year 2024 is expected to be a transformative year for China, especially in key areas such as biopharmaceuticals, agriculture, multinational corporate performance, generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), and consumer brands.

In the biopharmaceutical sector, China’s progress signifies its expanding role in the global pharmaceutical landscape and its innovative capabilities in drug development. The agricultural sector continues to impress with its efficiency and productivity, with China playing a pivotal role in feeding a sizable part of the global population and asserting itself as a key player in the global agricultural market.

For multinational corporations, the operating environment in China presents a mix of challenges and opportunities. The diverse outcomes among these companies underscore the dynamic nature of China’s market, with some experiencing robust growth while others face challenges.

The potential of GenAI will start to be unleashed with the proliferation of applications, the rise of a domestically powered enterprise software market, and advances in chipset technology.

The emergence of Chinese consumer brands on the global stage highlights China’s growing influence in the global market through innovative products and strategic marketing.

These developments signal a period of meaningful change for China. Aligning with the hopeful and auspicious spirit of the Year of the Dragon, China poise to not only drive meaningful change within its own borders but also to make a substantial impact on the global economic and technological landscape.